Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1489
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 28 2025 17:59:59

ACUS11 KWNS 281759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281759=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-281930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1489
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...portions of extreme northern South Carolina into
western North Carolina and western Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 281759Z - 281930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of strong/damaging wind gusts may accompany the
stronger pulse-cellular storms over the next several hours. However,
the overall severe threat should be isolated, and a WW issuance is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular storms have initiated along and to the
lee of the central Appalachians due to strong diurnal heating and
orographic lift. Surface temperatures are already in the mid 80s F,
that with low 70s F dewpoints, are contributing to over 3000 J/kg
SBCAPE amid negligible convective inhibition. However, tropospheric
flow and deep-layer shear are very weak, and given poor mid-level
lapse rates, the aforementioned SBCAPE is constrained to tall/thin
profiles. As such, the main threat this afternoon is for brief and
localized, strong/damaging gusts with the heavier storm cores.
Therefore, the sparse nature of the severe threat should preclude a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

...Squitieri/Hart.. 06/28/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!67X-OslBAYyLpOZroRkz_QgrLhvONR7oxkI5L1VBIaw9td0Z9BhcskVfsCA7P9OkT_5k8Ho1J=
vTni-FZ-yr9x66fF1c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   35118326 36308179 36818107 37728010 38227964 38367940
            38297903 38137878 37507856 36707872 36087909 35677945
            35338044 35048148 34918199 34778256 35118326=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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