Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 28 2025 13:19:35

AWUS01 KWNH 281317
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-281900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0538
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
917 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Southeast MO...Northeast AR...Western
TN...Western KY...Southern IL...Southern IND...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281315Z - 281900Z

SUMMARY...Highly efficient pulse convection with sub-hourly 2"
totals and eventual broader downdrafts/cell mergers that pose an
isolated total to 3" and localized possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and GOES-E conventional imagery loops
depict developing convective clusters across the central MS Valley
into the Lower Ohio River Valley.  WV loop and RAP analysis shows
sharp upper-level ridge and rapid directional/divergent flow aloft
to support weak but multi-directional outflow to support stronger
ascent/updraft strength.  At the lower levels, solid 15-20kt
solidly confluent 850mb flow through the Lower Ohio Valley
supports convergence of very deep moisture/narrow skinny profiles
with modest but sufficient instability (1000 J/kg of CAPE).  Total
PWats over 2" and vertical flux convergence will allow for highly
efficient warm cloud processes (12-13Kft depth); but with weak
shearing/tilting of updrafts, downdrafts should collapse downward
likely resulting in focused totals up to 2" in less than 30-60
minutes.   Further rounds of thunderstorms will be generated along
outflow boundaries; so with each cycle the potential for broader
updrafts increases with some potential for mergers or expansion
over areas that were hit with prior rounds suggesting an isolated
spot of 3" is possible.=20

Hydrologically, the area has been above normal in rainfall and
soil saturation in most locations in the MPD area.  FFG values of
2"/hr seem reasonable and may be exceeded, suggesting widely
scattered incidents of localized flash flooding is possible.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6NP_yTzkQFRP7SOxPoEtN7yngkvuoAOMDAq4NXda1spifKU3-YLlBIYrabPyHH0bBPle=
MlIfhUM9j24z_BPC5CpRBuc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   39358687 39208590 38388561 37658621 36748804=20
            35128929 35289193 37299188 38048995 38768825=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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