Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 28 2025 14:18:55

AWUS01 KWNH 281418
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-281915-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0539
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1018 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Northeast OK...Southwest MO...Northwest AR...
Exteme Southeast KS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281415Z - 281915Z

SUMMARY...Small slowly decaying MCC giving way to new slow
moving/efficient thunderstorms along unstable edges.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um IR and regional RADAR mosaic depict a
smaller than average MCC with well defined MCV crossing out of SE
KS with the outer banding feature continuing to maintain on
stronger than forecast southwesterly warm air advection.  AMV/RAP
analysis suggests a 300mb 50+kt jet speed max crossing out of
central KS northeastward, exposing favorable right entrance ascent
and favorable outflow to maintain and due to internal convection,
slightly enhance the MCV.  This has also aided a solid south to
southwest 30kt inflow which has been orthogonal to the trailing
banding feature resulting in continued development.  Initial
clusters near Tulsa have kicked some outflow southwestward and
visible imagery shows bubbling Tcu along the upwind instability
axis where MUCAPE values remain about 1500-2000 J/kg but are only
uncapped in the vicinity of the isentropic ascent.

Downstream, weak low level stratus appears to be burning off and
increased insolation is helping to bolster surface to boundary
layer heating across the high low level moisture environment
between the small MCC and the thunderstorm activity spurred by
downstream confluence in the MS/OH River Valleys.  CIRA LPW layers
show area of concern remains the core of nearly all layers of
moisture with overall totals exceeding 2" and with deep layer warm
cloud processes (13-14Kft), will support efficient rainfall
production (especially where WAA/isentropic ascent is greatest)
with 2-2.5"/hr possible.

Slow deep layer flow given the MCC ciruclation is slowly to the
east and crossing into recently saturated (higher relative soil
moisture ratios into the mid to upper 60%) across the Ozark
Plateau.  Combined with naturally lower FFG values due to the
complex terrain and low water crossings, the potential for
exceedance of FFG is higher and with spots of 3-4" totals suggest
it possible for scattered incidents of flash flooding to occur.=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6J2WxJ8tt-cY86Q1CuBywA1vklAnm8Bl-a7WMpf3MpQmPJfGs17VgI0e6BqVyOJs4ZLl=
jEQqojbos3MiLepxMIWg_EA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37999355 37789289 37439209 36719204 35639212=20
            35109266 35119365 35299443 35429552 35789639=20
            36679662 37109592 37329565 37529532 37759484=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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