Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1486
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 28 2025 04:48:03

ACUS11 KWNS 280447
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280447=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-280615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1486
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Southeast South Dakota...northeast Nebraska and
northwest Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 470...

Valid 280447Z - 280615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 470
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds has likely peaked already
and the storms may begin a slow weakening trend through 06-07z.

DISCUSSION...The bowing cluster with a history of severe outflow
gusts up to 83 mph is now showing the initial signs of weakening.=20
An increase in convective inhibition and weakening deep-layer
vertical shear with southeastward extent appear to be contributing
to weakening of the cluster, as evidenced by lowering echo tops and
a fine line/outflow progressing ahead of the main updrafts.  This
weakening trend is likely to continue and the storms should weaken
by 06-07z, though isolated strong-severe outflow gusts may occur in
the interim.

...Thompson.. 06/28/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_73UfN91oQmVuoNEADSNw0ghFAFO1RxT7WNxYhn1v0jN94x7F5H7rL18zMhJi8vLWOc2hccXb=
OXJwNZf26tAbyrQD0A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   42399606 42519722 42769741 43399678 43239582 42729577
            42399606=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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