Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1484
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 28 2025 03:40:21

ACUS11 KWNS 280338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280338=20
NDZ000-280445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1484
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...South central North Dakota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 468...

Valid 280338Z - 280445Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 468 continues.

SUMMARY...A couple of strong tornadoes possible through 04-05z.

DISCUSSION...An increase in low-level shear with the evening
transition, combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the lower 70s,
is helping offset the influence of near-ground stabilization.  The
substantial increase in hodograph curvature will contribute to more
leftward/inflow dominant tornado motions with mesocyclone
occlusions.  This environment will also support the potential for a
couple of strong tornadoes through 04-05z.

...Thompson.. 06/28/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4qtC-kp5cJkz_no9RvFMnDgHA2AHTfi6kO6CNXIf_CPxkuz4YVJH-CEM102xiucryj6sM_mdL=
xxEjv7_ui5htO2coQ4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON   46090012 46440059 46930084 47160046 47169944 46989919
            46119927 46090012=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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