Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1482
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 28 2025 03:11:19

ACUS11 KWNS 280308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280308=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-280445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1482
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Central and south central North Dakota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 468...

Valid 280308Z - 280445Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 468 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for a couple of tornadoes, isolated very large hail
and severe outflow gusts will persist for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells are ongoing across central and
south central ND, and these storms previously produced hail up to
2.5-2.75 inches in diameter and at least one tornado.  Gradual
cooling of the boundary layer post-sunset will result in gradual
low-level stabilization.  However, a concurrent increase in
low-level shear/hodograph curvature suggests that there is still a
window of opportunity for a couple of tornadoes through about
04-05z, as well as large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter.  In
time, there could be some upscale growth with cell interactions, and
a larger storm cluster could evolve and move along the buoyancy
gradient into southeast ND after 05z.  If that evolution occurs, the
threat for severe outflow gusts of 60-80 mph will increase.

...Thompson.. 06/28/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7lrtmUrKdJGlXI41WMp9j2q5Tm-ZBbT5EKezv9iDHwhmlBOxVSs5wggDcO_U1h8bravMgwBU3=
ELkvLZT56EagBnxFBU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   47570023 47839955 47849868 47449822 46779800 46209787
            45939824 45929922 45969991 46430059 47130092 47570023=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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