Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1479
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 27 2025 23:48:19

ACUS11 KWNS 272347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272347=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-280045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1479
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467...

Valid 272347Z - 280045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe gusts remain possible with several clusters of
strong to severe storms ongoing across NE. Some hail is also
possible.

DISCUSSION...As of 2340 UTC, regional radar imagery showed several
clusters of strong to severe storms ongoing across WW467. Mostly
outflow dominate, these clusters should persist in an unstable
environment (3000+ j/kg MLCAPE) supportive of strong updrafts. The
degree of buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates suggest damaging
gusts and some hail will remain possible with these clusters as they
slowly move eastward this evening.=20

The severe threat should continue this evening, though the eastern
extent of the more robust threat remains somewhat unclear. So far
storm organization has been limited, and MLCIHN has started to
slowly increase from warm mid-level temperatures and weaker forcing
ascent displaced to the north. As the storms and outflow continue
eastward the severe threat may extended beyond the eastern edge of
Watch 467. Some model guidance shows an uptick in convective
coverage later as the low-level jet increases, but this remains
unclear. A local extension of WW467 may be needed should storms show
an increase in intensity.

...Lyons.. 06/27/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-YEVxXffOX7tQoaEHIElNihm33G4rZriDZ0ZB53m8Jiz5l0SQ7ZM-ZERNbtt2BSF6kTDej3IR=
7CeCyh_S-wIf8lpNmk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   40820186 41180213 42640156 43060086 43039928 42319917
            41030014 40740086 40820186=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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