Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jun 27 2025 21:35:18 AWUS01 KWNH 272135 FFGMPD GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-280200- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0533 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 534 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Areas affected...Western Kentucky, Central and Western Tennessee Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 272133Z - 280200Z Summary...Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will continue to lift slowly northward into the evening. Rainfall rates of 2"/hr or more will result in 1-3" of rain with locally higher amounts possible. This may result in instances of flash flooding. Discussion...The regional radar mosaic shows clusters of thunderstorms continuing to move slowly across central and western Tennessee this evening, with additional storms pushing into southern Kentucky. This convection has been ongoing for several hours, but is maintaining intensity due to 925-850mb winds drawing more robust thermodynamics (PWS 1.9 inches and SBCAPE above 3000 J/kg) northward for support. Convection is continuing to deepen and regenerate as noted via the GOES-E day-cloud phase RGB which shows both fresh updrafts and overshooting tops in a region of increased Lightning Cast probabilities. Rainfall rates within this convection have been estimated via KOHX and KHPX WSR-88Ds to exceed 2, and even 3, inches per hour this aftn. During the next few hours, despite the modest 850mb inflow (15 kts), convection should sustain as it lifts slowly northward in advance of a weak shortwave across south-central TN. Weak overall forcing and negligible bulk shear will maintain generally pulse type thunderstorms, but mergers and outflow collisions will help support at least periodic brief organization into clusters, and result in additional convective development. Rainfall rates should remain intense, reaching 2-3"/hr at times as reflected by HREF and REFS probabilities, with HRRR 15-min rainfall exceeding 0.75" in some places suggesting brief rates even above 3"/hr. With storm motions progged to remain slow on 0-6km mean winds of just 5-10 kts, this could cause total rainfall of 1-3" with locally higher amounts in some areas. Soil moisture across TN and KY is generally above normal according to NASA SPoRT, reaching above the 90th percentile with respect to 0-40cm depths in some areas. However, extrapolating out the current reflectivity for several hours, and combining this with the HREF/REFS probabilities for 3"/6hrs, suggests the greatest risk for heavy rain will actually occur atop the less sensitive antecedent soils of western KY and TN. This may somewhat limit the flash flood risk as the FFG is higher across those areas. However, the slow movement of these intense rainfall rates, at least through the onset of nocturnal stabilization, could still promote instances of flash flooding even as they become become more isolated the next few hours. Weiss ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-TEmpHV95G-AZyzDNgB1RAWIIq1eQi8AKnFAmyuECQWjh0mqCfy4-T9YqJFvpeBgipjZ= tQ3tiVyj9nO7j0QNANEw_W0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...HUN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH... ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC... LAT...LON 38028600 37458537 36728473 35968479 35088506=20 34918541 34998572 35278638 35518702 35398809=20 35168889 35078979 35449004 36408944 37318866=20 37968720=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .