Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jun 27 2025 20:02:02 ACUS01 KWNS 272001 SWODY1 SPC AC 272000 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN... ....SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon/evening across the Dakotas and Nebraska, where very large hail, severe outflow winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible. Occasional wind damage will be possible this afternoon from northern Indiana into southeast Lower Michigan. ....20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of an Enhanced risk over parts of central ND -- driven by 30-percent hail probabilities. Based on the latest high-resolution guidance and observations, confidence has increased that several semi-discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail will evolve along the northern periphery of strong to extreme surface-based buoyancy and very favorable deep-layer shear into tonight. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the outlook. For information on the severe risk in Lower MI and northern IN, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466. ...Weinman.. 06/27/2025 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025/ ....Dakotas/NE/MN... Water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough moving across MT. As this feature overspreads the northern Plains this afternoon/evening, scattered thunderstorm development is expected from western ND into central/western SD. Storms will track southeastward in a moist and very unstable air mass, where steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear will support the development of supercells. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible with this early activity. Congealing outflows after dark may result in one or more bowing segments capable of severe wind gusts. Have expanded the SLGT a little farther east into MN to account for various morning CAM solutions. ....Lower MI... Visible satellite imagery shows clear skies from northern IN into southeast Lower MI, with dewpoints in the 70s and afternoon CAPE values expected in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. A weak shortwave trough will pass to the north of this area, providing weak lift and aiding in thunderstorm development by mid afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. ....East TN/north GA... Another active day of scattered thunderstorms is expected, with hot/humid conditions aiding in the risk of locally damaging wind gusts and some hail in the stronger cells. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .