Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1473
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 27 2025 19:47:26

ACUS11 KWNS 271945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271945=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-272145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1473
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...western NE into southern SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 271945Z - 272145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing, outflow-dominated convection should yield a
threat for severe gusts along with isolated severe hail. Severe
thunderstorm watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...High-based convection is increasing along the dryline
across the NE Panhandle into far northeast CO. This activity is
likely to persist as storm-scale convective outflows are generated
within an initially weak deep-layer shear environment. As outflows
impinge on progressively greater buoyancy into central NE and
south-central SD, a threat for severe gusts may persist over the
next several hours. Development ahead of dryline-forced convection
is not anticipated in the near-term owing to persistent
warm/moist-sector MLCIN, and this may curtail a greater hail threat.

...Grams/Hart.. 06/27/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5nVe-hAb6qc1ksE56QQNbhbP0XN-t7DrON2eNU9lTF0t4jQMj_KA5vL1OmfdH84wNhltmpzr8=
sZGCfJVi4ZhvJxJqUo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   42680232 41480278 40880257 40660182 41370051 42040005
            42599996 43800013 43750155 42680232=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.