Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1470
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 27 2025 19:10:32

ACUS11 KWNS 271908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271907=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-272100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1470
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...eastern OK...far north TX/southwest MO/northeast AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 271907Z - 272100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic microbursts, capable of localized strong to
marginally severe gusts from 45-60 mph, are anticipated through the
rest of the afternoon with slow-moving thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Differential boundary-layer heating downstream of an
MCV drifting east over west-central OK has aided in increasing
thunderstorm development from a portion of the Red River Valley
towards the Ozarks. Ample buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE around
2500 J/kg is likely present in a convectively undisturbed corridor
of eastern OK. With weak mid-level lapse rates yielding minimal
capping, scattered storm coverage is anticipated through the rest of
the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is weak per area VWP data and this
should limit organization potential beyond pulse-type wet
microbursts.

...Grams/Hart.. 06/27/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4hwJ6ldu92zS5g3rQAKu31hAqdMpLje4B36qiWI805V5Wo_SHwzacerQh0tgAVs5VqjzJ0qQ9=
d3xZDGLIiNfJNdLwA0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35349680 36109644 36659538 36649401 35859411 35169476
            34009648 33519728 33499778 33559898 33829893 34759715
            35349680=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.