Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 27 2025 18:13:44

AWUS01 KWNH 271813
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-280000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0530
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico...Western Texas Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271815Z - 280000Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorm clusters (mainly near mountain
ranges) capable of 1.5"/hr rates and localized totals to 2.5" may
induce flash flooding conditions, especially

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery shows convective activity
breaking through old convective debris in proximity to axis of
deep layer enhanced moisture.  CIRA LPW notes return surface
moisture has pushed up through the Davis mountains toward the
southern Sacramento Range with upper 50s to low 60F Tds; the
850-500mb layers, show the core axis of moisture though the
southwestern edge of the exiting northern stream trough and the
western edge/influence of the Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough
(TUTT) cell over S Nuevo Leon; bring overall moisture totals to
1.25-1.5" around the 90-95th percentile.  The old MCV appears to
be providing solid deep layer confluence/convergence in proximity
to the terrain for enhanced upslope for stronger thunderstorm
activity and with ample buoyancy with 1000+ J/kg of CAPE, moisture
flux will support rates of 1-1.5"/hr in the cores.

With the shortwave/old MCV in close proximity and deep layer
steering generally weak, drawing toward the northeast; cell
motions will be slow to allow for further duration along the
terrain and supporting localized totals up to 2-2.5", with highest
probabilities within the Davis Mountains into the southern
Sacramento Range.  This places a few fresher burn scars at risk of
being hit further enhancing the potential of rapid runoff and
mud/debris slides.  As such, flash flooding is considered possible
through the late evening.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_v6QSyi7DecHMe43juVS_Xl6PN0XsbUbhKR7HuAyDdGYc7PA_Pi3pit4JJHjIpLokUtI=
NmPgsEoAjxod_IbjZwxM3vc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   34350560 33910486 33660387 33620316 32880314=20
            32590358 32160375 31460333 30680299 30280307=20
            30000352 29950405 30340471 30830515 31170557=20
            31760592 32580611 33180646 33950626=20

=3D =3D =3D
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