Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 27 2025 08:58:43

ACUS48 KWNS 270856
SWOD48
SPC AC 270855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

....DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes at the
beginning of the period D4/Monday and shift into the Northeast by
Tuesday. A surface cold front will shift east across the Great Lakes
on Monday and to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Moderate
instability may develop across a large area east of the Appalachians
on Day 5/Tuesday. The strongest shear is forecast from Pennsylvania
northward, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. However, the
greatest instability should remain mostly south of this better flow.
Therefore, a favorable corridor may develop for some strong to
severe storms near the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas where instability and
modest shear overlap, but this remains too uncertain for severe
weather probabilities at this time.

Beyond Day 5, mid-level ridging will shift east across the central
CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will build across much of the
eastern CONUS. The combination of weak mid-level flow beneath the
mid-level ridge and surface high pressure should limit severe
weather potential for Day 6 and beyond. Strong instability is
forecast to return to the northern Plains, but given the lack of
mid-level flow, any storms will likely only be marginally severe at
best. Some stronger mid-level flow may return to the northern Plains
by next weekend as the ridge starts to break down, which may be the
next chance for more organized severe storms in the latter portion
of the extended period.

...Bentley.. 06/27/2025

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