Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 27 2025 05:10:37

AWUS01 KWNH 270510
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-270908-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0525
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
109 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...northern/central Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270508Z - 270908Z

Summary...A complex of strong convection near/northeast of Kansas
City was prompting training storms and areas of 1.5+ inch/hr rain
rates.  Flash flooding is possible as storms migrate from west to
east across the discussion area through 09Z/4am CDT.

Discussion...Over the past hour or so, convection along an axis
from near Topeka, KS to near Kirksville, MO has grown upscale into
a linear complex oriented parallel to modest steering flow aloft.=20
The presence of 25 knots of 850mb flow has also aided in
organization while maintaining influx of a very moist/unstable
airmass (2+ inch PW values and 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) into the complex.
 A series of weak midlevel shortwave troughs just upstream of the
complex have also fostered continued convective development.  The
orientation of the cells has fostered training, with recent MRMS
estimates of 2 inch/hr rain rates now noted about 30 miles
southwest of CDJ/Chillicothe, MO.

Despite modest boundary layer cooling, both observations and model
guidance suggest that the ongoing complex should continue for at
least another 2-4 hours tonight while continuing to maintain an
orientation for training cells.  2 inch/hr rain rates should
continue to threaten FFG thresholds across the region while
translating very slowly southward and eastward in tandem with the
complex.  The orientation/propagation of the complex should spread
the risk of heaviest rainfall toward the I-70 corridor in central
Missouri through 09Z/4am CDT.  Flash flooding will also remain
possible through that time.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7DoO1EKEqme3-4D7dNd9oThczapU6sVC65R8Rxs7OBBlVoKxYJiaEMeMjzKAMtFQvZ2T=
y7DVdGrOAFb8fN8U7gHGljc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   39739370 39579222 39139136 38619153 38599392=20
            38989467 39429485=20

=3D =3D =3D
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