Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1465
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 26 2025 23:11:04

ACUS11 KWNS 262309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262309=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-270045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1465
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Montana into far northwestern
North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 262309Z - 270045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe wind and/or hail may
accompany the stronger, longer-lived storms. However, the overall
severe threat should remain isolated.

DISCUSSION...Scattered strong thunderstorms have been increasing
over the last couple of hours, particularly over southern MT. Across
the northern High Plains, strong surface heating has supported upper
80s to 90 F surface temperatures, and with 9 C/km low and mid-level
lapse rates in place, over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE has become commonplace.
Nonetheless, deep-layer flow and subsequent shear remains modest,
especially where richer low-level moisture and resultant instability
are in place. Therefore, multicells and transient supercells will
continue to percolate in intensity over the next few hours. Severe
wind and hail are possible, but should occur on a more intermittent
and isolated basis.

...Squitieri/Guyer.. 06/26/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9HtVXromFouK7c6h23NNKg65oF4MbkUrR_ArEj1_6NwbZVaWVSiycDlaMWeI_Tq3GdcTmlIUK=
_gCPlE3F8VRogET4uU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   46370890 47150683 48470565 49010519 49050449 49040347
            48900324 48520324 47690374 46640529 45730766 45670816
            45710855 46370890=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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