Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 26 2025 22:58:06

AWUS01 KWNH 262256
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-270300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0523
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
655 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...Southern & Central WV...Southwest VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262255Z - 270300Z

SUMMARY...As rounds of slow moving strong thunderstorms continue
to flare up this afternoon, additional areas of flash flooding are
possible. Areas along steep terrain are most at-risk, as well as
in low-lying valleys.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms flaring up across southwest VA and
southern WV have had a history of producing Excessive Rainfall
rates with some elevated streamflow magnitudes evident in and
around the Radford, VA area. The environment remains favorable for
at least several more hours with mesoanalysis showing MLCAPE
values between 1,000-2,000 J/kg and PWs of 1.7-1.9" for much of
the highlighted area. These storms are also feeling the effects of
a rather strong ESErly 200mb jet located over the Carolinas. These
winds are unusual in terms of both strength its direction (ESE)
which may be allowing for enhanced upper-level divergence over the
region. Additional thunderstorm development will be largely due to
outflow boundaries and congealing cold pools. The lack of
sufficient vertical wind shear should keep these storms relatively
short-lived (1-2 hours generally), but given the environmental
parameters and some synoptic-scale support aloft, as much as 2-4"
worth of rainfall could occur within the next few hours within the
more intense storms. With that said, additional flash flooding is
possible for the remainder of the afternoon and into this evening.
Areas most at-risk are within low-lying valleys or along steep
terrain.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4zH1lzES44c8WhQPNcoHxBUmakDdQj_gL4LajHoUlUdGRQj6MiOBPUM1mmo9otuxz60o=
PoUzXPapyo8V70w4TgTLPhk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   39238006 38417985 37887970 37317950 36928001=20
            36948088 37148183 37698229 38398226 38728112=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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