Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1460
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 26 2025 21:30:14

ACUS11 KWNS 262130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262129=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-262300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1460
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0429 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas into far northwestern
Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 262129Z - 262300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms may pose an occasional
severe gust threat through the remainder of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Multiple thunderstorms have matured along a confluence
zone across eastern KS, where MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts 50+
dBZ echoes well exceeding 30 kft. While vertical wind shear is weak,
these storms are developing atop a moist surface airmass,
characterized by 70+ F surface dewpoints. Given a well-mixed
boundary layer, 8 C/km low-level lapse rates are in place, boosting
MLCAPE to 3000 J/kg. As such, the stronger pulse-cellular and
multicellular storms will be capable of producing wet downbursts and
associated strong wind gusts. However, the overall severe threat
should remain isolated.

...Squitieri/Guyer.. 06/26/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9axeGjC6vjxHZ22ZS5yjPQhmGn4pgJ-k7HIrJG3LyEKRqyTFW4NCBso-ALqXLzY9STcCQiYv5=
fcW2ekR96xvWsE1nS8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37079672 37159695 37309699 37559694 38019676 38469644
            39349600 39539556 39559497 39419451 39099433 38359437
            37959448 37609468 37179523 37019595 37079672=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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