Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1459
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 26 2025 20:32:02

ACUS11 KWNS 262031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262031=20
IAZ000-262200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1459
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern IA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465...

Valid 262031Z - 262200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and possibly a tornado will
continue through late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A convective line has evolved across central into
northern IA this afternoon, with other smaller clusters gradually
becoming better organized into southwest IA. Deep-layer shear is
rather weak, and weakens with southward extent, but unidirectional
25-35 kt southwest flow in the 1-3 km AGL layer (as noted in the
KDMX VWP) could support some organized damaging-wind potential.=20

There has been some tendency for outflow to advance ahead of the
convective line, but any small bowing segments that become oriented
more orthogonal to the southwesterly low/midlevel flow (such as the
one across Butler/Grundy Counties, IA) could be more likely to
produce localized swaths of wind damage through late afternoon.
Modestly favorable effective SRH could also support a brief tornado
threat.

...Dean.. 06/26/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6YAgzhsIHasn8xfdgx9EGRxD2rxZe7dowIdMPBgNnKuMx88zSNiN24qL8tlwiMp9LaYK3YAWx=
0gHQOdttf76-azQ_-k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   41959369 42729301 42999270 43139190 43139144 42909146
            42509161 41979203 41589237 40919328 40799467 41569403
            41959369=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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