Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1458
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 26 2025 19:43:43

ACUS11 KWNS 261943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261943=20
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-262115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1458
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...Parts of extreme northeast IA...southeast
MN...southwest WI

Concerning...Tornado Watch 463...

Valid 261943Z - 262115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 463 continues.

SUMMARY...Both an eastward-moving convective line and developing
cells ahead of the line could pose a tornado threat this afternoon.
Localized damaging wind is also possible.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms has developed from southeast MN
into north-central IA, with additional cells gradually developing
east of the line into parts of southwest WI. MLCAPE has increased
into the 1000-1500 J/kg along and immediately north of the warm
front, with a more stable environment farther north, where clouds
have persisted and temperatures are in the 60s F.=20

The broken line moving across far southeast MN earlier produced a
reported tornado in Freeborn County, and this portion of the line
will continue to pose a tornado threat as it traverses the warm
frontal zone, where low-level shear/SRH is locally enhanced (as
noted in the KARX VWP). The developing cells east of the line could
also begin to pose a tornado threat, especially if one or more of
these cells can mature and take on more of a front-parallel motion,
leading to increased residence time in the frontal zone. Cell
mergers into the primary line could also result in locally increased
tornado potential.=20

Aside from the tornado potential, locally damaging wind will
continue to be possible with the primary convective line as it moves
eastward this afternoon.

...Dean.. 06/26/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-MuheXw56B1CiJTCCyx6geEsoMNjgZGV4A2nugpV-v7cjaRtQ2pfHh5yBArQTKeF2zg2dseOE=
l2JVLOC7mkW63lA45Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON   44179241 44209163 44109074 43979004 43689005 43209016
            43369100 43449174 43479251 43659255 44179241=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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