Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1456
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 26 2025 18:09:52

ACUS11 KWNS 261808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261807=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-262000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1456
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...Southern lower MI into parts of IN/OH...western
PA...northern WV

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 261807Z - 262000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms with localized damaging winds are possible this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Multiple storm clusters are ongoing early this
afternoon across southern lower MI, with other recent development
into northeast OH and northern IN. The southern lower MI storms are
accompanied by gradually expanding outflow, which will eventually
move into parts of northeast IN and northern OH. Additional storm
development may occur near this outflow this afternoon as it spreads
east-southeastward. Deep-layer shear is weak, but modest
west-northwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer may support
occasional loosely organized clusters. A 44 kt gust was recently
observed in Toledo, OH, and strong buoyancy and steep low-level
lapse rates will continue to support a threat of strong gusts and
localized damaging wind through the afternoon.=20

Farther south, deep-layer shear is even weaker into parts of central
IN, central/southern OH, and southwest PA. However, a favorable
downburst environment is in place across this region, with strong
buoyancy, relatively large PW, and steepening low-level lapse rates.
A threat for locally damaging wind will accompany the strongest
storms.

...Dean/Hart.. 06/26/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8d62wnRsmuvTmFG57Wj-StgkylZ53P_Q3v-LhYBOl2gaZIqxwyXOsrq8EhcQqVAI0hn9R1KAq=
5c3gwVO2eiqeMgf_MM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...
IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   41758648 42148510 42108336 41828092 41758020 41647955
            41337900 40677904 40107947 39368101 38488243 39118562
            40788700 41048703 41368686 41758648=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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