Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 26 2025 16:11:11

ACUS01 KWNS 261611
SWODY1
SPC AC 261609

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this
afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota,
and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from
the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians.

....Upper Midwest...
A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving
eastward.  Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered
thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and
along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track
southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE
values will be 2000-3000 J/kg.  Steep low-level lapse rates will
promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward
through early evening.

From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed
low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be
favorable for a few discrete supercells.  Similar to yesterday
(although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few
tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening.

....Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians...
Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the
western Carolinas and north GA.  This corridor will be hot/humid
again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms.  Winds aloft are
weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes.  However,
steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again
result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the
afternoon and early evening.  Despite the expected weak winds aloft,
will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of
model guidance supporting the threat.

...Hart/Thornton.. 06/26/2025

$$

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