Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1454
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 26 2025 17:37:11

ACUS11 KWNS 261737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261736=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-261930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1454
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...Extreme southeast NE/northeast KS into northwest MO
and southwest into central/northeast IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 261736Z - 261930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and possibly a tornado will
increase with time this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A cold front is moving east across parts of eastern NE
and northeast KS this afternoon, as a surface low moves from
southeast SD into southern MN. While cloudiness has limited heating
to some extent, rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg along/ahead of the front. Storms are already
developing near a differential heating zone across central IA, with
other development possible later this afternoon in closer proximity
to the front.=20

Both low-level and deep-layer shear increase with northward extent
across the MCD area. Some threat for supercells with a threat for
locally damaging wind and a tornado may develop into parts of
central/northeast IA (see MCD 1452 for more information). Farther
south, despite weaker shear, a broken line of storms with a threat
of damaging wind may eventually develop along/ahead of the front
from extreme southeast NE/northeast KS into southwest/south-central
IA and northwest MO. Watch issuance is likely in order to address
these threats.

...Dean/Hart.. 06/26/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4lgNdgFQ5-_YoBu6sHkVv6mH34bgCpGPlVt1HyldP_rrrP08vpCMMXcSAb4kO8kV6viRySnUX=
BCQeVJPwzd6uVOudlk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   41129582 42199475 42789269 42849192 42779176 42189177
            41519249 41139284 40719325 40239384 39859460 39909560
            40439599 41129582=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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