Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1445
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 25 2025 22:52:35

ACUS11 KWNS 252252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252251=20
WIZ000-260015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1445
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...portions of southern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 252251Z - 260015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms may mature along a warm front,
accompanied by damaging wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado.

DISCUSSION...Small supercell structures have recently developed
along a warm front across southern Wisconsin, where 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE is in place. The latest MKX VAD data shows a modestly curved
low-level hodograph and over 400 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH, which suggests
that any supercell that can remain sustained will have a fair chance
at producing a tornado. Convective trends will be monitored for the
need of a watch issuance.

...Squitieri/Guyer.. 06/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-ZZiNF9yHViiG-MptQO1-65DFiLAtDP3F5fh1LPOKOoKH2pRZhkJtPS63YNppdITUfFnMO7O4=
a5Qpp0Xp_6ZsuqXxo8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON   42708781 42568817 42628932 42729040 42999070 43429041
            43529008 43408904 43338872 43158804 42708781=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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