Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1443
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 25 2025 22:20:04

ACUS11 KWNS 252220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252219=20
SCZ000-260015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1443
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...Central South Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459...

Valid 252219Z - 260015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging/severe winds is expected to
increase over the next couple of hours across central South Carolina
as thunderstorm clusters begin to merge within a very unstable
environment.

DISCUSSION...Two convective clusters have now become apparent over
the Carolinas. The first, propagating south/southwest closer to the
Carolina coast, appears to be well-balanced with new, deep updrafts
developing along the leading edge of a consolidating cold pool. To
the west, a secondary cluster is moving south off of the higher
terrain and into deeper low-level moisture. Despite being outflow
dominant, GOES 1-minute imagery shows robust convection erupting on
the immediate cool side of the outflow boundary, hinting that this
cluster may attain a more balanced updraft/downdraft convergence
zone in the near future as additional cells develop along the
leading edge of the cold pool.=20

Both of these clusters are propagating into an environment
characterized by MLCAPE values upwards of 3500 J/kg, and while some
anvil shading is occurring immediately ahead of the clusters, the
lack of widespread boundary-layer cumulus and dewpoints falling into
the upper 60s across central SC suggests a dry, deeply mixing
environment is downstream of both clusters. These low-level
thermodynamic conditions should be very favorable for downdraft
accelerations and damaging to severe downburst winds. The severe
threat may be maximized where the two clusters merge in the coming
1-2 hours, and potentially along a subtle low-level confluence zone
draped across the state.

...Moore.. 06/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4-ARXSu36SeJiZHkmsjs9ANfINeHcrS1gFFLxcEk4DPoUIk6n4bd9a17_VQWuIYPvL48hJjmX=
8H77n3qexI0QjD_Gb0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   34868140 34558215 34308229 34108223 33748189 33518165
            33308131 33218080 33298011 33407968 33637949 33947950
            34217975 34838085 34908122 34868140=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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