Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1434
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 25 2025 17:22:32

ACUS11 KWNS 251722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251722=20
MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-251915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1434
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...Eastern WV into parts of MD...VA...DC...and far
south-central PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 251722Z - 251915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Localized damaging wind is possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered storm development is underway early
this afternoon from the eastern WV Panhandle into northern VA/MD.
Midlevel lapse rates are notably weaker compared to areas farther
south. However, strong heating of a richly moist airmass has allowed
MLCAPE to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Storm organization
will be limited by weak deep-layer flow/shear, though weak
unidirectional west-northwesterly flow may allow for small
southeastward-moving clusters if sufficient outflow consolidation
can occur. Even in the absence of any organized clustering, very
steep low-level lapse rates will result in potential for localized
damaging downburst/outflow winds through the afternoon.

...Dean/Hart.. 06/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7uZZ3I9S-Y5igYYYaXZoxiQbMzeejKEGvNMV-KYfWVeAvRFZEJLxPQrkH7iBuc2qZ6fqeE4FX=
ZDIIwW4QpkXPqitLeo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   39457904 40017707 39807619 39127615 38517617 37807636
            36787907 37997935 38737942 39097946 39457904=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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