Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1432
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 25 2025 15:52:10

ACUS11 KWNS 251551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251550 COR
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-251745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1432
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...Parts of western NC/upstate SC into far northeast
GA and extreme eastern TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 251550Z - 251745Z

CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC HEADLINE

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging downburst/outflow winds and isolated hail are
possible into this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Morning soundings depict a rather volatile
thermodynamic environment across parts of the Southeast this
morning. A remnant EML and seasonably cold midlevel temperatures
atop 70s F dewpoints are already supporting MLCAPE of 3000-4000
J/kg. Temperatures will warm through the 90s F this afternoon,
resulting in very steep low-level lapse rates.=20

Low-level flow will generally remain weak, but modest northeasterly
midlevel flow between a weakening upper ridge and an upper low near
south FL could support weakly organized storms. However, even
relatively disorganized storms in this regime will be capable of
producing damaging/potentially severe downbursts and isolated hail,
given the very favorable thermodynamic environment.=20

Storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain into mid afternoon. The
highest confidence is short-term development is across the higher
terrain over western NC and vicinity, where isolated initiation is
underway. The need for short-term watch issuance is uncertain, but
will become increasingly possible with time, especially across
south/east portions of the MCD area.

...Dean/Hart.. 06/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_tzmqLyB_bjlS-wRxOU4sfhcc91e3wz6rOqzNqglsWKyaemTuZ1QWDokpHzJHVC2n3pcwXuv_=
_IOMUGvL7scGxuC5k8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   35248440 36028330 36518194 36358126 36008117 35668122
            35278163 35098201 34718260 34498321 34568355 34658408
            35248440=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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