Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jun 25 2025 09:58:22 AWUS01 KWNH 250957 FFGMPD TXZ000-NMZ000-251530- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0511 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 555 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Areas affected...Central and Southern NM...Southwest TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 250955Z - 251530Z SUMMARY...Some additional clusters of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms will be possible going into the morning hours which will maintain at least some potential for flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The predawn GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with dual-pol radar still shows some areas of locally heavy shower and thunderstorm activity impacting areas of central and southern NM along with far southwest TX. A slow-moving shortwave trough over the Southwest continues to slowly pivot eastward, and this is driving some right-entrance region upper-jet dynamics which coupled with the very moist and modestly unstable airmass across the region should favor a threat for these clusters of convection to persist into the morning hours. PWs across the region remain the same as earlier and are on the order of 1.3 to 1.5 inches which represents the 90th to 95th percentile of climatology. CIRA-ALPW data continues to show a deep layer tropical connection of moisture lifting north across Mexico and up across the southern Rockies/High Plains around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge centered over the Eastern U.S. The latest RAP analsyis shows MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg locally over the region, and this coupled with the very moist environment and local ororgaphics should still favor some rainfall rates that may reach 1 to 1.5 inches/hour with the stronger cells. The 06Z HREF and 00Z REFS data suggests some potential for additional FFG exceedances going into the morning hours, with locally an additional 2 to 3 inches of rain possible going through 15Z (9AM MDT) where the stronger remaining clusters of convection persist. Therefore, a threat for additional areas of flash flooding will be maintained at least over the next several hours. This will include locally enhanced runoff concerns for the normally dry washes/arroyos and any burn scar locations including for the Sacramento Mountains. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7K38a1kIEB2w34xBrMavFbZcIw1cFwiIyFHVKYnHfqsXWHiKgPP5LkNUC_jWIUqdUXef= MuVlHhOPNkkniu4OY_JHoKQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF... ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC... LAT...LON 34810443 34410361 33090363 31500454 30930536=20 31040579 31210604 31590672 31690776 31900802=20 32480778 33230713 34120597=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .