Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jun 25 2025 04:31:08 AWUS01 KWNH 250431 FFGMPD TXZ000-NMZ000-251030- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0509 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1230 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Areas affected...Central and Eastern NM...Southwest TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 250430Z - 251030Z SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall will continue overnight across areas of central and eastern NM down through southwest TX. A combination of heavier rainfall rates and slow-moving showers and thunderstorms will likely foster additional areas of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The mid-evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a slow-moving shortwave trough ejecting across western NM which is helping to drive a broader area of ascent downstream across much of central and eastern NM down through southwest TX. This is interacting with a very moist and unstable airmass and is currently sustaining a fairly large area of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity. PWs across the region are on the order of 1.3 to 1.5 inches which represents the 90th to 95th percentile of climatology. The 00Z EPZ RAOB showed a rather high WBZ level with a strong concentration of moisture in the mid and upper levels of the vertical column. This is further confirmed in CIRA-ALPW data which shows a very well-defined tropical connection of moisture lifting north from Mexico and up across the southern Rockies/High Plains around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge centered over the Eastern U.S. This very moist environment will favor highly efficient rainfall processes for enhanced rain rates. The latest RAP analysis shows a rather strong pool of instability currently over southeast NM with the aid of moist low-level southeast flow, and the MUCAPE values currently remain as high as 2000 to 3000 J/kg. This available thermodynamic energy coupled with the approaching shortwave trough, proximity of a weak MCV, and weak outflow-induced low-level forcing should maintain a solid threat for heavy showers and thunderstorms going well into the overnight hours. Localized orographic ascent near areas of high terrain, including the Sacramento Mountains will further enhance the convective potential. Rainfall rates with the stronger storms will likely be 1 to 2+ inches/hour given the anomalously moist environment, and the relatively slow cell-motions may allow for some storm totals overnight to reach 2 to 4+ inches. Areas of flash flooding will be likely as a result, and there will be concerns overnight for notable arroyo flash flooding. Additionally, the burn scar complex (Blue-2, Salt, South Fork, and McBride) in the Sacramento Mountains will need to be carefully monitored for additional focused flash flooding concerns. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-nMEJJzWWb03U0-X1rrv491tKluIuvPx4lrGBnvZtvyCnskidgH0wAqmm1X3lc5mx7BI= ii_zbECZy3TL3voiEkJ6dHQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF... ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 36130397 36030307 34890321 33100407 31490443=20 30870526 31170589 31400628 31750676 31880755=20 32650771 33370725 34390640 35230542=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .