Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 25 2025 00:47:37

AWUS01 KWNH 250047
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-250645-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0508
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
846 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado through central Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250045Z - 250645Z

SUMMARY...Organizing cluster of thunderstorms extending from
eastern Colorado through southwestern portions of Nebraska is
expected to gradually push northeastward while containing heavy
rainfall rates potentially exceeding 2"/hr at times. Isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding are possible through early
tonight.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations, radar, and satellite
trends depict an organizing thunderstorm complex exhibiting a
somewhat slow northeast forward motion that has the potential to
produce instances of flash flooding. MRMS estimates hourly
rainfall rates up to 2.5"/hr near the border of southwest NE and
northeast CO where the advancing line of storms out of CO is
congealing with developing cells in the warm sector across
southern NE.

This area of thunderstorms falls within the RFQ of the 300mb upper
jet racing out of the neutrally tilted western U.S. trough with
its base in southern CA. This is providing ample divergence aloft
and when combined with surface convergence along a frontal
boundary, an ideal setup for thunderstorm growth. Southerly flow
on the western periphery of the eastern U.S. upper high is also
giving the region plenty of atmospheric moisture content to work
with. PWs in the are over 1.5" and above the 95th climatological
percentile per the 12z ECENS and GEFS. Therefore, rainfall rates
are expected to be intense underneath the strongest updrafts and
within developing mesoscale circulations created by merging cells.
Recent CAMs depict the potential for rainfall totals up to 5" and
the 18z HREF highlights 25 percent chances for at least 3" across
a broad region in the highlighted MPD. 3-hr FFG  is generally
around 3", thus the potential for isolated to scattered flash
flooding more likely in prone urban areas and low-lying areas near
rivers/streams.=20

Snell

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_6ZheWlfpNxBg-IPc_t9xgysWualF5N1Q7fK90e16GzxcbvoAneg-XxQAWeHBc_qIsU4=
kl2b3hkxp_Rj-dKIRD2kvqg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   41870058 41520008 40620055 39160210 38510318=20
            38830376 39550326 40110302 41060294 41570248=20
            41830175=20

=3D =3D =3D
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