Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 25 2025 00:03:43

AWUS01 KWNH 250002
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-250400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0507
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
801 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Areas affected...Far northeast KS, southeast NE, southern IA, and
northern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250000Z - 250400Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving from
northeast Kansas into northern Missouri have the potential for
rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr. These storms are moving into an area
that experienced heavy rainfall earlier today and could spawn
isolated instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite observations depict mostly
unorganized thunderstorms rounding the dominant eastern U.S. upper
ridge and moving across the central Plains in an
east-northeasterly direction south of a stationary front draped
across central IA. Additionally, an outflow/low-level convergence
boundary is analyzed south of this front and is the focus for the
scattered thunderstorm activity of concern. MRMS shows hourly
rates estimated up to 1.5-2.0" at times.

Recent 22z HRRR run did not initialize this convection accurately
compared to prior runs, with the experimental RRFS struggling to
as well. This area of northern MO and southern IA falls on the
southern periphery of the better moisture axis with PWs greater
than 1.7" extending along the frontal boundary just to the north.
However, an instability gradient noted by 2500-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE
extends along the surface convergence zone and should be enough to
maintain or grow updrafts within an area of 25-30kts of sfc-3km
bulk shear. Therefore, it's possible storms maintain for several
additional hours until instability weakens well after sunset.

Parts of northern MO and southern IA experienced several inches of
rainfall this morning (4-6") and FFG remains somewhat impacted as
3-hr FFG remains below 2.5" in spots. Given the potential for
storms to overlap these sensitive locations and locally intense
rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr, isolated flash flooding is possible.

Snell

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-YqAK2nReUAwowKySDnXIfLG34pWl_au-CPViECg22FY3GsAngUFLoJsFlpIbikY1ct6=
oCOJS14rz8HNAU7YbzrS0B8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   41309265 41119192 40699181 40159275 39649434=20
            39579520 39989560 40389544 40889477 41239357=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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