Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1429
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 24 2025 20:51:45

ACUS11 KWNS 242050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242049=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-242315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1429
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Areas affected...portions of extreme northwest Pennsylvania into
extreme western New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 242049Z - 242315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts cannot be ruled out over the
next several hours. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have initiated and intensified off
of surface boundaries and confluence zones over the past couple of
hours. Deep-layer flow and shear, as well as buoyancy, are modest at
best across the region (e.g. 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid less than 20 kts
of effective bulk shear). As such, a couple of brief downbursts may
cause sparse tree damage in the near-term. Relatively more robust
storms are currently tracking across extreme southeast Ontario.
These storms may cross Lake Erie a few hours for now, perhaps with a
slightly greater damaging gust threat. Nonetheless, the severe
threat should remain localized, precluding the need for a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch.

...Squitieri/Hart.. 06/24/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4jwGXkk6DT0v4L5tlCL1LgfITeh57oTfSUPcFfpWYOrVmMX1mz5IyY8WZXk0-6dhtpbp1Mw3Q=
RrfqlQrIDejt0zumlo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   41598064 41807996 42337916 42647894 42897892 43097892
            43327874 43327847 43027842 42337838 41957850 41657862
            41447895 41377948 41267988 41238016 41228040 41598064=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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