Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jun 24 2025 19:59:23 ACUS01 KWNS 241959 SWODY1 SPC AC 241957 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ....20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ...Weinman.. 06/24/2025 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ....High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ....Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ....TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .