Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jun 24 2025 18:53:01 AWUS01 KWNH 241852 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-250000- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0505 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 252 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Areas affected...West TX, High Plains of NM, far western TX Panhandle Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 241851Z - 250000Z Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will rapidly expand this afternoon across the High Plains of NM and surrounding areas. Rainfall rates in more intense cores will exceed 1"/hr, leading to localized rainfall totals of 2-3" or more. Flash flooding is likely. Discussion...The regional radar mosaic across the Southwest this afternoon shows a rapid expansion of showers and thunderstorms aligned from far West Texas northeast through the western Panhandle of Texas. This activity is building rapidly in response to impressive and intensifying deep layer ascent driven by a combination of height falls from an amplifying trough over the Great Basin, a favorably placed upper jet streak, and a potent MCV/convectively enhanced shortwave lifting out of Chihuahua, Mexico. This lift is acting upon extreme thermodynamics characterized by record PWs measured via regiona U/A soundings of 1.4 to 1.6 inches overlapped with SBCAPE that has climbed to 1000-2000 J/kg according to the SPC RAP analysis. With a large mid-level ridge anchored to the east, and the amplifying trough to the west, the region will remain pinched within moist flow allowing for ongoing convection to expand and intensify through the evening as reflected by available CAMs. Recent reflectivity from KFDX and KHDX WSR-88Ds has expanded rapidly in conjunction with a surge of Lightning Cast probabilities and deepening updrafts on the day-cloud phase RGB from GOES-E. This has manifested as radar-estimated rainfall rates as high as 1.5"/hr. Although storms have been generally of pulse variety with limited life spans due to weak bulk shear, some organization is occurring along a pronounced 850-700mb convergence axis as low-level winds weaken out of Texas. This, as well as the potent MCV emerging into West Texas, will help to focus thunderstorms over the High Plains of NM through the afternoon. Initially, fresh convection will move slowly as noted by weak winds in the sfc-600mb layer of regional soundings, but then eventually translate more rapidly northeast as they deepen. Still, Corfidi vectors will remain just 5-10 kts indicating that cells will generally move slowly today. With rain rates progged by both HREF and REFS ensembles to exceed 1"/hr (50-60% chance), and HRRR 15-min rainfall as much as 0.5", this could result in 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts through the evening. Parts of eastern NM and West Texas have been wet the past 7 days, with AHPS measuring rainfall departures that are as much as 300% of normal. This has lowered FFG to as low as 1-2"/3hrs, with much lower FFG likely across sensitive burn scars and terrain features. There is at least a 30-50% chance of exceedance of this FFG, and flash flooding is likely over more sensitive soils and urban areas. Should this heavy rain fall atop the most vulnerable areas, like the Ruidoso Complex, locally significant impacts are likely. Weiss ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4dEE2h7MyQRmFd-wz1rKQSzbb140vqk0vv12d8Lh2Zo4Il3gPbnQxFdjJEb_X_7qAwH6= 2QhYw1x-o65AphocEErdBmE$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF... ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 36660298 36540251 36190215 35300242 34350288=20 33130314 31800362 30860418 30670517 31130616=20 31470655 31810675 32490660 33510612 34200568=20 35360468 36380375=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .