Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1427
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 24 2025 18:35:22

ACUS11 KWNS 241835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241835=20
COZ000-WYZ000-242030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1427
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Areas affected...parts of north central Colorado and ern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 241835Z - 242030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development is likely to
commence along the eastern slopes of the Front Range and Laramie
Mountains during the next few hours.  This probably will include a
few supercells impacting the Greater Denver vicinity through 3-4 PM
MDT.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of slow moving mid-level troughing across
parts of the Southwest and Great Basin, southeasterly low-level flow
is maintaining seasonably moist boundary-layer air across the high
plains into the eastern slopes of the Front Range and Laramie
Mountains.  Beneath relatively warm mid-level air to the east of the
higher terrain, associated low-level cloud cover is slowing
destabilization to the east/northeast of the Laramies through the
Cheyenne Ridge vicinity.  However, across the Front Range, near the
Greater Denver vicinity, insolation is more rapidly eroding
inhibition and beginning to increase mixed-layer CAPE in excess of
1000 J/kg.

With additional surface heating, Rapid Refresh forecast soundings
suggest that thunderstorms may begin initiating along the eastern
slopes of the higher terrain, particularly near the Denver area,
within the next hour or two, before gradually increasing and
intensifying through 21-22Z.  In the presence of moderate to strong
southwesterly flow in the 500-300 mb layer, deep-layer shear appears
more than sufficient to support supercells.  These may pose a risk
for large hail, and at least some potential for brief tornadoes, as
they attempt to propagate eastward off the higher terrain.

Due to the warm mid-level environment near/just above 700 mb,
stronger storms might be, at least initially, slow to propagate away
from the higher terrain.

...Kerr/Hart.. 06/24/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4wPfG8o8AbbrYFjfGoU2_yK9KFI66L4XNuEK7-LXtFl7hEDo2jOLb4hpfY-nIZrP9ipRNvWxP=
anOHMa7_zjtzQZcY9M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON   43260560 42470476 41370437 40330385 39230445 40240534
            41990558 43110642 43260560=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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