Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jun 24 2025 17:03:28 AWUS01 KWNH 241702 FFGMPD COZ000-NMZ000-242300- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0504 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 102 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Areas affected...Central and Northern New Mexico, far southern Colorado Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 241701Z - 242300Z Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing across New Mexico will expand and intensify through the afternoon. Rainfall rates may exceed 1"/hr at times, leading to 1-2" of rain with locally higher amounts possible. This may cause instances of flash flooding. Discussion...The regional radar mosaic late this morning shows rapidly expanding coverage of showers aligned with a surface trough axis across western New Mexico. This convection is blossoming in response to increasing ascent through low-level convergence and increasing upper diffluence as a jet streak pivots to the north. Thermodynamics are impressive across the region as well, with PWs analyzed by the SPC RAP of 0.8 to 1.2 inches (and measured on the KABQ 12Z U/A sounding of 1.12 inches, nearly a record), overlapping increasing SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Recent shower activity from KABX WSR-88D has rapidly expanded coincident with cooling cloud tops reflective of deepening updrafts, yielding radar-estimated rainfall rates of 0.5"/hr. The CAMs are in good agreement that convection will continue to rapidly expand during the next few hours, and in fact the current activity is even more widespread than CAM initialization which appears to be running about 2 hours behind reality. This suggests that the impressive coverage of simulated reflectivity forecast by the CAMs is accurate, with the overlap of strong deep layer ascent maximizing over near record PWs leading to numerous thunderstorms by the aftn. As bulk shear increases to 20-30 kts, storms should organize into clusters and intensify even further, with HREF, REFS, and the UA-WRF indicating rainfall rates potentially eclipsing 1"/hr later today, with as much as 0.5" of rainfall occurring in 15-mins according to the HRRR. Although storms will form initially along the low-level convergent trough and across terrain, it is likely these clusters will move off to the northeast on 0-6km mean winds of 10-20 kts, with aligned Corfidi vectors indicating training of cells to produce 1-2" of rainfall with locally higher amounts. These intense rainfall rates, especially where they repeat/train, will pose an increasing flash flood risk through the afternoon. FFG across the area is elevated due to recent dry conditions, which limits HREF exceedance probabilities to just 5-10%. However, where any more pronounced training can occur, or should the strongest cells move atop sensitive terrain features, urban areas, or recent burn scars, rapid runoff leading to instances of flash flooding could result. Weiss ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_12K0FKB0Trb3gvrfaEYs_Gnh8jnhyM6PaSfaUyWA5tFmVkBwaC7g3rtfTGlpcerobtD= ee1w8ucAB-uvlUWj8ImCSFg$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...PUB... ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 37630508 37450464 37190429 36420431 35310434=20 34640472 34230525 33970585 33970595 33580664=20 33210731 33130781 33260806 34210815 35900780=20 37040705 37590590=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .