Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jun 24 2025 14:45:56 AWUS01 KWNH 241444 FFGMPD TXZ000-NMZ000-241900- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0503 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1044 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Areas affected...West Texas into southeast New Mexico Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 241442Z - 241900Z Summary...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will expand across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico though the early afternoon. Rainfall rates may exceed 0.5"/hr, which through repeating rounds could produce over 1" of rainfall in some areas. Where these rain rates occur atop sensitive terrain features or burn scars, flash flooding may result. Discussion...The GOES-E Day-Cloud Phase RGB early this morning indicates a rapid increase in convective updrafts and paired increasing Lightning Cast probabilities. This is associated with deepening convection downstream of a shortwave lifting out of Chihuahua, Mexico within pinched 700-500mb flow out of the south. This flow is being squeezed along the periphery of an intense mid-level ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic states and downstream of an amplifying trough over the Great Basin. 700mb temperatures have lowered about 2C during the past 24 hours, allowing for this more rapid uptick in convection, and rainfall rates have already been estimated above 0.5"/hr according to the KHDX radar in fresh development this morning. PWs across the region were measured this morning on the 12Z U/A sounding at KEPZ of 1.49 inches, well above the 90th percentile and near the daily record of the SPC sounding climatology. This PW is progged to surge to as high as 1.75 inches, and combine with a plume of instability approaching 2000 J/kg to fuel strong convection into the afternoon. Although the strongest echoes and accompanying rainfall may occur later today, through the next several hours the increasing deep layer lift (downstream of the shortwave and within the RRQ of an intensifying upper jet streak) will help push rainfall rates to 0.5-1"/hr according to both the HREF hourly probabilities and 1-hr rain rates from the UA WRF. Locally higher rainfall is even possible, as the HRRR 15-min rainfall reaches 0.5" before 19Z in isolated locations. With Corfidi vectors progged by the RAP to be just 5-10 kts, and in the presence of bulk shear increasing to 20-25 kts, even where rainfall rates are not most intense repeating rounds of showers/thunderstorms could cause 1-2" of rainfall. This area has been wet recently as noted by 7-day AHPS rainfall as much as 200-300% of normal, leading to 0-10cm soil moisture above the 98th percentile, and compromised FFG as low as 1-1.5"/3hrs. Although HREF exceedance probabilities are modest through the next several hours, it is possible that any of these more intense rain rates, if they do fall atop the more sensitive soils or vulnerable terrain and burn scars (especially around Ruidoso) could cause rapid runoff leading to flash flooding. Additional discussions for enhanced flash flooding potential will likely be needed for parts of these same areas, as well as downstream to the north, later this afternoon. Weiss ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5iUU2XjpstSnoOYhxwgJYxGc5ULDIPu6z5dH0y9NPNHx9kHcKxriMVAWZiASSLuIZsHa= -oquvZqw9qLv7JjopB78UZI$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF... ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC... LAT...LON 34210549 33830483 33340425 32640385 31170364=20 30700377 30510398 30280464 30500538 31180624=20 31720673 32370707 33220696 33870629 34190593=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .