Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jun 24 2025 07:13:17 ACUS03 KWNS 240713 SWODY3 SPC AC 240712 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...AND OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are possible from the central Plains to Lower Michigan, over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Montana on Thursday. Scattered damaging gusts appears to be the main concern. ....Synopsis... On Thursday, a weak upper wave will move eastward across the Great Lakes, phasing with the larger-scale trough which will be exiting the Northeast. South of there, a weakening upper low should remain over FL, providing cool temperatures aloft. Otherwise, winds aloft over much of the central and eastern CONUS will be weak. To the west, moderate westerly flow aloft will move across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies, with 30-40 kt 500 mb winds over MT. At the surface, a large area of moisture and instability will remain in place from the Plains and Midwest into the Southeast, and this will continue to support widely scattered thunderstorms, with some producing severe gusts during the afternoon. Meager moisture return will occur into eastern MT, in advance of the low-amplitude upper wave. ....Central Plains into the Midwest... A surface boundary will provide a focus for daytime redevelopment from KS IA/MO/IL, with storms becoming numerous by 00Z. Weak shear and ample moisture should support clusters of storms with primarily localized strong to damaging gusts. ....Southeast... Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to weaken on Thursday, but cool temperatures will still support areas of moderate instability. Storms should again occur over the Appalachians, and perhaps along residual outflows from early convection. Isolated damaging gusts will be possible. ....Eastern MT... Steep lapse rates will develop, but surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 40s F within a pre-frontal trough. Still, the deeply mixed boundary layer combined with 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and modest westerly flow aloft may support scattered storms capable of locally strong wind gusts. ...Jewell.. 06/24/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .