Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 24 2025 04:18:55

AWUS01 KWNH 240418
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-241000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0501
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1217 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Areas affected...Central/Eastern KS...Northwest MO...Southern IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240417Z - 241000Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue
overnight across portions of central and eastern KS, northwest MO
and southern IA. Some additional concerns for flash flooding will
exist from slow-moving cells and high rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
southwest to northeast axis of broken shower and thunderstorm
activity extending from central KS northeastward through northwest
MO and into southern IA. The activity is focused along and south
of a well-defined frontal zone with a very moist and unstable
airmass pooled up along it. PWs of 1.75 to 2 inches, with MLCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are noted along it.

A rather convergent southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts is
focused in proximity to the front, and this should coupled with at
least weakly divergent flow aloft should maintain a regional
threat of heavy showers and thunderstorms going through the
overnight hours.

There will be additional storms capable of producing rainfall
rates of 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour based on the very moist
environment along the front, and locally slow cell-motions and
potential areas for some cell-training may allow for some spotty
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches.

The 00Z HREF guidance is rather aggressive with some of the
rainfall potential over the next several hours, and may be locally
a bit overdone, but the environment near and south of the front
should remain conducive for additional areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms. Some additional concerns for flash flooding will be
possible as a result, and especially if any of these heavier rains
can impact the more sensitive urbanized areas.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6lOlPDgyrx9pzE1UpcAhx8mWQInGxSn7TWM-dz_qLhqe7tK90GVcukyoo4LsZiRbE2Ki=
87xwrDFSIwJpPcrZU4ZkOUc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   41699247 41249134 40229211 38769477 37969683=20
            37819855 38669881 40039606 41249448=20

=3D =3D =3D
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