Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 24 2025 03:36:54

AWUS01 KWNH 240336
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-240735-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0500
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1135 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Areas affected...Southern NM...Southwest TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240335Z - 240735Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
continue to pulse going into the overnight hours across portions
of southern NM and into southwest TX. High rainfall rates and
locally slow cell-motions will continue a threat for flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows areas of
cold-topped convection continuing to regenerate and locally
persist across areas of southern NM and down into southwest TX.
The environment remains very moist with PWs in the 90th to 95th
percentile of climatology this evening. Despite the convection
that has already occurred through the evening, there still remains
pockets of instability with MLCAPE values locally over 1000 J/kg.

There is some weak mid-level vort energy lifting slowly
northeastward across far northern Mexico which may lift into
southern NM and far southwest TX overnight, and this energy will
likely support at least some sustenance of convection given the
very moist environment and the lingering instability.

The moisture concentrations in the mid and upper-levels of the
vertical column are quite impressive based off the CIRA-ALPW
analyses and this should favor rather efficient rainfall processes
for additional high-end rainfall rates. Some rates with the
stronger storms that persist over the next few hours may still be
capable of reaching 2 inches/hour. The slow cell-motions will
support additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 4+ inches.

Additional areas of flash flooding will be possible, and this will
especially be the case around some of the normally dry
washes/arroyos and localized burn scar areas which are sensitive
to heavy rainfall.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6GmEjehXi64hq1xaAqmgwG35h_BLjMYWj2FiHtIYIgpaf7GrWGmp-Xj24plTyXqJ_fs6=
KtG3a77JVOQtFeMPty61tBg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   34230585 33900454 32800346 30990293 29490277=20
            29070342 29570448 30740551 31270620 32210700=20
            33530707=20

=3D =3D =3D
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