Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 23 2025 21:27:58

AWUS01 KWNH 232127
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-240326-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0498
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
526 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Areas affected...central/northeastern Kansas into central iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 232126Z - 240326Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will gradually increase in
coverage through 03Z/10p CDT across the discussion area.  These
storms will also gradually organize into bands fostering
training/mergers, with rain rates exceeding 2 inches/hr at times.
Flash flooding is expected on an isolated to scattered basis.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms continue to expand in
coverage 1) along and just north of a surface cold front extending
from near Hays, KS to near Mason City, IA and 2) ahead of this
front across much of central Kansas.  The storms are embedded in
deep southwesterly flow aloft, with marginal low-level shear
contributing to loosely organized cells and clusters that are
primarily outflow dominant in nature.  Cells were drifting
northeastward while merging, resulting in localized spots of 1
inch/hr rain rates especially from central Kansas into
southwestern Iowa.  These rates are falling well below FFG
thresholds (generally in the 2.5 inch/hr range), suggestive of an
isolated/spotty flash flood risk in the near term (through 22Z or
so).

Over time, convective coverage should expand with continued
surface heating and a weakly capped airmass.  Meanwhile, 850mb
flow should increase into the 25-30kt range while promoting
convergence along the surface front.  The strong southwesterly
flow should also maintain both moisture (2+ inch PW values) and
instability (3000 J/kg MLCAPE) Each of these factors support an
increasing flash flood risk as areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates
materialize.  Sensitive/urbanized areas should experience the
greatest flash flood risk in this scenario.  Scattered storms
should continue to grow upscale into bands promoting training and
mergers, and development of one or two forward-propagating
convective complex is likely especially from northeastern Kansas
into southwestern Iowa.  Isolated to scattered flash flooding is
likely in this scenario.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9w9idsvK4vkaJsp-R3A420YwzqDK-j7FM6erI3URNlZs40zt8Cam0UIY7MlqXmMIbFX2=
27bnPdX326iNvtZl3ymLm9o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...DMX...DVN...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   42589334 42339222 41829171 40599262 38619539=20
            37499673 37219792 37269959 37660022 38380010=20
            39379885 40299814 41739523=20

=3D =3D =3D
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