Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1420
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 23 2025 20:37:16

ACUS11 KWNS 232037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232036=20
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-232230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1420
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Areas affected...parts of southern/eastern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455...

Valid 232036Z - 232230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455
continues.

SUMMARY...Another small, organized cluster of storms posing a risk
for damaging wind gusts may evolve east of La Crosse toward the
Oshkosh vicinity through 5-7 PM CDT, along outflow trailing the lead
cluster now spreading south through southeast of Green Bay.

DISCUSSION...One small, organized convective cluster, with an
embedded meso-beta scale cyclonic circulation, has already evolved
and produced a narrow corridor of severe and/or damaging gusts near
and east of the Wisconsin Rapids area.  This may continue near/south
and southeast of the Green Bay vicinity, before diminishing while
spreading into Lake Michigan within the next hour or so.

Meanwhile, thunderstorm activity now forming upstream may undergo a
similar evolution along the trailing outflow from the lead cluster,=20
east of La Crosse toward the Oshkosh vicinity during the next couple
of hours. Inhibition has become increasingly negligible in the
presence of peak heating, with latest mesoanalysis indicating CAPE
on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg, in the presence of at least modest
shear beneath 40+ kt westerly 500 mb flow.

...Kerr.. 06/23/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5mBGl3vr2k4-_4P2RTvlbsJ6b-Y1u8lvjnyHs76QRfNNQT9xqNQ8tZ0BI6xSGw__s2quaixHK=
asN7BBBIwjIKn-wYgo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON   43569134 43599033 44238913 44518748 43888731 43328847
            42868978 42769077 42999141 43569134=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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