Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jun 23 2025 09:01:14 ACUS48 KWNS 230901 SWOD48 SPC AC 230859 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ....DISCUSSION... ....D4/Thursday: Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... An area of interest for severe-storm potential on Thursday resides from eastern IA/southeast MN into northern IL/southern WI. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is generally forecast to move across parts of the Midwest into the Great Lakes during the afternoon, potentially accompanied by a frontal wave. While deep-layer flow will generally remain rather modest, rich low-level moisture and strong heating will support moderate to strong buoyancy along/south of the front. Strong to potentially severe storms may develop as the approaching shortwave trough impinges upon the favorable buoyancy. Uncertainty regarding frontal position and the sufficiency of deep-layer shear precludes higher confidence at this time. ....D5/Friday: Northern Plains... An area of interest for Friday resides across parts of the northern Great Plains. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies toward the northern High Plains, though considerable spread remains regarding the timing of this relatively low-amplitude shortwave and attendant cold front. The front may impinge upon strong instability across parts of the Dakotas, with scattered storm and eventual MCS development possible. Deep-layer shear may remain relatively modest, but the magnitude of instability will likely support some organized severe threat. ....D6/Saturday: Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Some continuation of severe-storm potential is possible into Saturday, potentially shifting eastward into the Upper Midwest. Spread in guidance becomes quite large at this range regarding placement of the warm sector Saturday afternoon, but strong instability and at least modest deep-layer shear could support severe storms along/east of the cold front. ...Dean.. 06/23/2025 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .