Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jun 23 2025 05:42:14 ACUS01 KWNS 230542 SWODY1 SPC AC 230540 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... ....SUMMARY... Storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. ....Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... At mid-levels, an anticyclone will remain over much of the eastern U.S. today, as southwesterly flow remains over the north-central states. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys extending southwestward into the central Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F will contribute to moderate destabilization during the day. As low-level convergence increases along the front, somewhat widely spaced convection is expected to initiate. From this convection, several clusters of storms are expected to move eastward toward an axis of instability. Along and near the instability axis from northeast Kansas into southern Wisconsin, deep-layer shear is expected to be modest. However, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the afternoon, which could support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to be strongly diurnal, with the greatest threat occurring in the late afternoon and early evening. ....Southern and Central High Plains... Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place today across much of the south-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central High Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability will develop ahead of the front from eastern New Mexico into southwest Kansas. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak along this corridor, the moderate instability combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates may be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat. ....Northern Maine... At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place today across northern New England, where heights will rise substantially. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across much of the Northeast, where surface dewpoints will be mostly from the mid 60s to the lower 70S F. As surface temperatures warm today, isolated convection initiation may occur along an axis of low-level convergence in northern Maine. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear will be in place. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the early to mid afternoon. ...Broyles/Moore.. 06/23/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .