Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1409
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 22 2025 22:52:40

ACUS11 KWNS 222252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222252=20
MNZ000-230045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1409
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...northern Minnesota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 451...

Valid 222252Z - 230045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 451 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat is likely increasing across northern
Minnesota as thunderstorms develop within a favorable environment.

DISCUSSION...GOES visible and IR imagery show steady vertical growth
of convection across north-central MN along and north of a warm
front and to the west ahead of a cold front. Based on recent RAP
forecast soundings, areas that have temperatures in the mid 70s or
higher will likely support surface-based convection within the warm
frontal zone where backed low-level winds are yielding effective SRH
on the order of 200-250 m2/s2. Increasing low to mid-level ascent
associated with the approach of an upstream perturbation and within
the warm advection regime should promote continued storm maturation
and coverage over the next couple of hours. Given that the number of
candidate storms appears to be increasing within this narrow, but
very favorable environment (best characterized by STP values between
3-5), the potential for tornadoes - including strong tornadoes - may
increase in the coming hours if one or more mature supercells can
maintain sufficient residence time within this corridor.

...Moore.. 06/22/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7_vIfe6MWAsm-jNoH54pNk2Mk0CZKiiY8J3-s4H93j8lAQShv95yduPRQ6kEnOdgpIku5o0JL=
z424AXJ2VvwEWz93OA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON   47849331 47569477 47569552 47569605 47659636 47939650
            48449623 48889594 48949564 48869514 48549457 48479411
            48469355 48489322 48379297 48099294 47909312 47849331=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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