Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1408
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 22 2025 22:28:30

ACUS11 KWNS 222226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222226=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-230030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1408
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452...

Valid 222226Z - 230030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452
continues.

SUMMARY...A few discrete supercells continue across the western
Nebraska Panhandle, posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar and satellite imagery shows two discrete
supercells over Scotts Bluff and Banner counties NE.  These storms
have formed as lift associated with an approaching shortwave trough
interacted with deep easterly/upslope flow.  Full sunshine ahead of
the storms, coupled with dewpoints in the upper 50s and 60s will
help to maintain the activity for several more hours.  Forecast
soundings show steep low and mid-level lapse rates and ample CAPE,
along with favorable deep-layer shear for maintaining supercell or
small bowing structures.  Damaging winds and large hail will remain
possible.

Recent HRRR runs are suggesting some potential for southward
development of this activity in far northern CO, where a similar
boundary-layer regime is present.  If this occurs, these storms
would also pose a severe hail/wind risk.  However, the area affected
would likely be too small to warrant an additional watch.

...Hart.. 06/22/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6iuszSqR2AcE59qT-L2y1Hg_xZC5oPpA_Ba8g9krjplV62I__qXewh0gOGAv6xTHj02h6i8EE=
lqRIQseXIy0E5s0bsw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   42220369 42530178 42040132 41390193 40710272 40540399
            41390427 42220369=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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