Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 22 2025 20:44:46

AWUS01 KWNH 222044
FFGMPD
NDZ000-222300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0494
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
443 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...central/northeastern North Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222042Z - 222300Z

Summary...A band of elevated convection has developed across
central North Dakota, while obtaining a favorable orientation for
training.  Areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates can be expected while
the band persists, prompting isolated flash flood potential.

Discussion...In the past half hour or so, convection along an axis
extending from 50 miles northeast of Bismarck to ~20 miles west of
Langdon has exhibited increasing organization and training.  This
band of convection was elevated, but likely tied to strong
convergence along an 850mb trough in the area.  The region also
resides on the western fringes of very steep lapse rates aloft,
and its SSW-NNE orientation is favorably oriented to steering flow
aloft for training.  Areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates have
already been observed within this band - especially just northeast
of Bismarck.

The temporal extent of this flash flood risk is a bit uncertain,
with models not handling the ongoing training convection
particularly well.  At least 2-3 hours of convective training can
be expected within this axis, resulting in spots of 3-4 inch
rainfall totals through 22-23Z.  The mesoscale organization of the
complex may not persist beyond that point as the band lifts
quickly north-northeastward into south-central Canadian provinces.
 Convective trends will be monitored for additional heavy rain
potential beyond 23Z/6p CDT.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6dHjX62Ujp2c7YgScLGrE4Bx9KLq2BOKMXuxkfNZoxq1KLA2zMfmgfdbQxjASVQQgc27=
ELlf8pvBWP5ieP_1o0T1fwk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   49169903 49109803 48619789 47709860 46969994=20
            47020079 47580052 48030037 48789983=20

=3D =3D =3D
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