Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1405
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 22 2025 19:52:42

ACUS11 KWNS 221951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221950=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-222115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1405
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221950Z - 222115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for a few instances of severe wind/hail will
increase through the afternoon. The severe threat should be isolated
enough to preclude a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently shown an uptick in
intensity across portions of central NM into the TX Trans Pecos,
with a cell in Lincoln County, NM showing 40 dBZ echoes at 50 kft.
MLCINH is eroding due to strong diurnal heating, which is promoting
robust boundary-layer mixing, with 0-3 km lapse rates already
approaching the 9-10 C/km range in spots (per 19Z mesoanalysis).
Additional storms should continue to develop and intensify this
afternoon given persistent diurnal heating, with MLCAPE likely
exceeding 1000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be weak, and given marginal
MLCAPE, most storms should be pulse cellular or weakly
multicellular. Given steep low-level lapse rates, rapid evaporative
cooling with stronger storm cores may result in severe gusts and
perhaps a brief instance of hail. Since the severe threat should be
isolated, a WW issuance is not expected.

...Squitieri/Bunting.. 06/22/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8ONGaDcKggvjER7Xuq-ff3waPn8d3kr0-M52ClWLprNybTKNiBAG9JnVKlAQgO-6ObyabBLc_=
4t7ubVw5CUslY1O80k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   32810584 34100543 35280483 36230395 36680286 36370216
            35720188 34000217 32110303 31180336 30460388 30390462
            30860549 31450601 32810584=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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