Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1404
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 22 2025 19:34:48

ACUS11 KWNS 221934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221934=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-222130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...northwest MN and eastern ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 221934Z - 222130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The tornado threat with a few supercells will increase
during the late afternoon to early evening as surface-based storms
develop across the Red River Valley through northwest Minnesota. A
tornado watch issuance is expected.

DISCUSSION...Airmass recovery is occurring across the Red River
Valley and northwest Minnesota in the wake of earlier elevated
thunderstorms. While another round of elevated thunderstorms has
formed well west into the post-frontal airmass across central ND,
this lobe of large-scale ascent will overspread the downstream
surface front and trough in the next couple hours. 19Z mesoanalysis
suggests that MLCIN has weakened. Surface-based thunderstorm
development by 21-22Z is likely.=20

Weak easterly components to the low-level flow between the surface
front and trough will support favorable hodograph curvature as flow
veers to the south and south-southwest aloft. In conjunction with
optimal temperature-dew point spreads, a corridor of supercell
tornado potential is anticipated. Otherwise, large hail and isolated
severe gusts will be possible as storms likely become confined
closer to the international border this evening.

...Grams/Bunting.. 06/22/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5vq89OOu4vlSSt2mMf-wYwwEcBqcMn8poFNMMIQOpVOfkKhc48Huf-HdR2KigHqbe0rrf-d5A=
v0nsHFcRGIhaeuUK9k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   49329393 48619355 46459670 46289757 46309795 46599838
            47139817 48869639 49359504 49329393=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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