Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1403
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 22 2025 18:50:52

ACUS11 KWNS 221850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221850=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-222045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...the NE Panhandle and far southeast WY

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 221850Z - 222045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and strong gusts will be possible as a few
supercells likely develop across the Nebraska Panhandle vicinity.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...High-based cumulus development is underway along and
west of a quasi-stationary front arcing across far southeast WY. CYS
VWP data has sampled substantial speed shear above the lowest km
amid a nearly unidirectional southwesterly profile. This will
support potential for multiple supercells this afternoon within the
downstream post-frontal regime across the NE Panhandle. Most of this
area should remain along the western periphery of weak surface-based
buoyancy where surface dew points can hold in the mid to upper 50s
to the north of the west/east-oriented instability axis along the
I-80 corridor. Continued negative low-level theta-e advection from
the north-northwest will be a limiting factor to the northern extent
of the severe threat and should result in a confined corridor of
realized severe. With robust mid-level UH signals across the 12Z
HREF and recent HRRR/RRFS guidance, the expectation is that a few
supercells will be capable of large hail and locally strong gusts.

...Grams/Bunting.. 06/22/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6-0l9K3U6oz0g_n3XJ5beapfxxQDE6ks9HHM4C_yJvf7sCTAMzrlJUVyO5ff_373MO24XQ8Bk=
vBGEymgH31u4a7XbX8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   43140192 42670146 42070173 41430263 41070414 41370496
            41730499 42550429 43170274 43140192=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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