Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 22 2025 15:37:01

AWUS01 KWNH 221536
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-222030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0492
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1136 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania and West-Central New York

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221535Z - 222030Z

SUMMARY...A threat for repeating thunderstorms continues through
the afternoon over portions of northeast PA and west-central NY
where flash flooding is possible. This activity should remain west
of the extreme rainfall from this morning in southern NY. However,
areas south and west of there are vulnerable to flooding given the
terrain and low flash flood guidance.

DISCUSSION...A slow moving western front left over from extreme
rainfall in southern NY is the focus for continued convection over
west-central NY and northeast PA. Recent uptick in activity there
has resumed 1"/hr rainfall (in Susquehanna Co PA) due to repeating
development as upper level steering flow is nearly parallel to
this front. Low level westerly flow has diminished from this
morning, but remains around 25kt at 850mb per NEXRAD VAD Wind
Profiles (such as KCCX).

Pooled elevated moisture (PW around 2.0") and a strong gradient in
MLCAPE will continue to allow further development through the peak
diurnal hours. Cell-training will continue to be a threat in this
rather static mesoscale pattern.

A question remains as to how far west this activity develops. Over
the past hour, the progression west has greatly slowed which means
continued training is a threat and could grow more considerable as
indicated by 12Z ARW2/FV3LAM/NAMnest. Given 1hr FFG is below 1.5"
there is a localized flash flood threat that may yet expand in
coverage/intensity if the training activity does stall.

Going through the afternoon morning, additional rainfall totals of
1 to 3 inches along this frontal zone, and thus flash flooding are
possible.

Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7uatsuElLPeTHV-pUs3Ks0CQx1niQy5qJB0GzdozDli76jCVvTakiQz6EcHFwnKNydDZ=
mWyQBZaOTQToiEl_JrV5Ntc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON   42767651 42537579 41887532 41047493 40467502=20
            40267563 40747653 41407679 42457730=20

=3D =3D =3D
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